Tesla Model 3 Tracker

The Model 3, raised an existential question for the company. Could it figure out how to crank up production before the money ran out? To find the answer, Bloomberg built a data-tracking tool that proved uncannily accurate at estimating output during that critical first year. This is the story of how we did that, why we’re stopping, and what we’re doing next.

The Model 3 Tracker launched in February 2018 after Tesla created something no other automaker could claim: an electric car that hundreds of thousands of people lined up to buy. The only problem, at least in the beginning, was that Tesla couldn’t produce enough of them. Elon Musk had “bet the company” on mass production—and he very nearly blew it.

Tesla reported its production totals only on a quarterly basis, leaving investors to speculate in the dark as the company missed self-imposed targets. Into this fray, Bloomberg’s tracker generated real-time forecasts of the number of Model 3s coming off the lines at the factory in Fremont, California. We did this by combining data from an obscure government registry with reports from thousands of our readers.

The results far exceeded expectations. For four consecutive quarters, Bloomberg’s estimates came closer than Wall Street forecasts. The Model 3 Tracker twice came within 0.5 percent of Tesla’s actual production. (We blew it on the fifth quarter; more on that below.)

Now it’s time to move on to tracking the next phase in Tesla’s evolution. As the company proved its ability to crank out Model 3s, investors have turned to different metrics of success. Tesla shares have been in a tailspin in recent weeks on doubts about consumer demand for the Model 3—and electric vehicles writ large. Tesla needs to prove it can mass produce cars with the quality, reliability, innovation and service to keep attracting new customers as traditional automakers add more electric options.

This is why Bloomberg’s Model 3 Tracker will stop producing new forecasts. Instead, the data we’ve collected will help launch an extensive survey of Tesla customers. Model 3 owners can participate using the link below.